Will the World Geopolitics shift after the midterm elections?
The upcoming U.S. midterm elections could test Trump’s foreign policy, but his America Shield initiative and other geopolitical moves are likely to persist.
Next Tuesday the United States will hold legislative elections, which serve as a kind of assessment of the government. Historical records show that, in general, the opposition party wins; therefore a Democratic victory would not surprise anyone.
But in Trump’s case, the bet on his defeat is doubled both domestically and abroad. At home, economic issues and resentments caused by the migration issue weigh heavily; however, the peculiarity lies in the international arena, because the administration has pursued bold initiatives —some truly extreme and reckless— that have shifted U.S. policy in its relations with Europe, China, Israel, Iran and Latin America, to name the most important.
South of the Rio Grande, the left‑wing and wokeness political environment expects to bill Trump on Tuesday for the America Shield to combat drug cartels; the removal of Maduro —the beginning of the end of Chavismo—; and pressure to end almost seven decades of dynastic dictatorship in Cuba. Trump is deploying actions that aim to eliminate the penetration of enemy terrorist organizations of Western culture in the American continent, which operate as jihadist tentacles (for example Hamas and ISIS), linked to the FARC and drug trafficking.
These actions deployed by the Trump administration constitute a fundamental part of the geopolitical approach put in motion, which in Ecuador is manifested through direct actions, including military aid to combat organized crime groups.
Therefore, one would expect that a defeat in the legislative elections would force Trump to submit several of his geopolitical decisions to Congressional approval. However, I believe the path taken by the U.S. government is solid and, to some extent, irreversible, though that does not mean none of its aspects could be reviewed. Thus, at least regarding the America Shield initiative, Tuesday’s election result will not affect it.
