How Ecuador's Economy Will Close in 2026

Just over 60 days before the end of 2026, eyes are already turning to the year‑end outlook and the expectations shaping 2027.

The first consideration concerns the United States' conflict with Iran in particular, and more broadly the situation in the Middle East, with its fallout of instability in the global oil market. Sustained inflation forecasts, driven by rising fuel prices, are, in that context, threats that experts say will translate into a slowdown and decline in activity, a trend already evident in Europe and the United States.

By August, total Ecuadorian exports (US $27 billion) recorded a year‑over‑year increase of 10%. Shrimp, bananas and fishery products stood out; oil sales also rose, as a result of the price surge caused by the United States‑Iran tensions. This data confirms that the current government's economic policy strategy relies on leveraging dollarisation to expand the country's export potential. The other pillar is consumption: by September, domestic sales exceeded US $26.85 billion (a 16 % annual increase). On this basis, the Central Bank forecasts a 2.7 % GDP growth for 2026.

Nevertheless, the country‑risk rating continues to show a persistent upward trend: from August’s 414 points, it has risen to 595 points to date, which, although far below the 2,016 points recorded in November 2023—when Daniel Noboa took office—remains worrisome.

That rise in country risk partly reflects market uncertainty caused by both the electricity crisis and the El Niño phenomenon. Combined, these events are likely to further stall the economy, especially through job losses, infrastructure damage and other collateral harms that translate into lower productive investment and reduced productivity levels. However, if the government manages to alleviate the blackouts and mitigate their effects, it will have preserved a relatively reliable margin to “save the furniture” and keep optimism alive.

Another important factor still shaping economic performance is security. While it is true that since 2024 the Noboa administration has confronted criminal groups, Ecuador’s inclusion from 2026 in the “Shield of the Americas” initiative promoted by President Trump ensures a shared effort to give greater effectiveness and force to the fight against international drug cartels and their links to organized crime, often associated with politicians.

The regional political landscape sends clear signals that with the new presidents (De la Espriella in Colombia and Fujimori in Peru), border porosity with both countries will be addressed; it will become feasible to combat both illegal mining and drug trafficking that uses Ecuadorian ports and maritime zones as logistical hubs to reach the United States and Europe. Consequently, the outcomes of the November elections in the United States and Ecuador could also turn into messages with pessimistic political outlooks for the economy.

Just over two months remain before 2026 ends, and forecasts for the closing of Ecuador’s economy remain shrouded in uncertainty.